Tag Archives: projections

NCIA and BDS Analytics Partnership: Analyzing the Market Data Tool

By Aaron G. Biros
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In May, the National Cannabis Industry Association (NCIA) announced a partnership with BDS Analytics, a cannabis market intelligence and data firm, according to a press release. Beginning in June of this year, NCIA members received access to market and sales data via BDS Analytics’ GreenEdge sales tracking software.NCIA.Logo

BDS_Logo_-_with_analytics_purple_text_copyAccording to Aaron Smith, executive director of NCIA, market intelligence was previously very scarce in the emerging cannabis industry. “We hear from our members all the time that one of their biggest challenges is the scarcity of reliable market intelligence and data in the industry,” says Smith. “Being able to offer this kind of data as an included benefit of NCIA membership is incredibly valuable. We’re proud to partner with BDS and grateful for their support of NCIA’s mission.”

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Roy Bingham, CEO of BDS Analytics

The GreenEdge reports span numerous product categories as well as high-level market reporting. According to Roy Bingham, chief executive officer of BDS Analytics, NCIA member-businesses can take part in a tutorial to familiarize them with the interface. Bingham says they have extraordinarily comprehensive data on Colorado and Washington; they will have Oregon’s data ready in less than three months and roll out nationally to all major markets during the rest of 2016 and 2017.

Through using the interactive GreenEdge reports, we were able to identify key market figures and growth percentages, such as percent of the market share held by dry flower, average infused chocolate bar prices and much more. We found that Colorado’s recreational and medical markets totaled $996.5 million in 2015, just shy of a billion dollars. 28% of that market was held by infused products and concentrates, which grew by 111% over the previous twelve months. The average infused chocolate bar sold at retail in Colorado was priced at $14.47 last year. Overall, Colorado’s cannabis marketplace grew by over 41% between 2014 and 2015.

ScreenShotGreenEdge1According to Bingham, for most mature industries, a ten percent transaction value of the market is sufficient to scale data so that it speaks to the entire market. “However, this is not a stable, mature industry so we are more comfortable with a sample size of around twenty percent of the total market,” says Bingham. “We are well over those numbers in Colorado and Washington.” In order to get the data, BDS Analytics makes direct arrangements with dispensaries on their panel to get access to their point-of-sale data, which can be done in almost real time or in a download at the end of each month. “It is then standardized with a learning software system, assisted by personnel, that gets better over time at categorizing data points,” says Bingham. “We use algorithms to scale the data to the total industry size, and there are a number of adjustments made to those algorithms to make sure the data is normalized.” The program has recorded more than 20 million transactions to date.

ScreenShotGreenEdge2Dispensaries provide their data because they get the full service that comes with being a member of the panel, including details down to the brand level, according to Bingham. “This enables dispensaries to offer consumers what they are purchasing on average in their market,” says Bingham. “You get to see a breakdown of the most popular brands and items if you join the panel and submit data.” They have categorized more than 20,000 unique products, such as a number of different types of concentrates, different types of infused products and more.

The interactive data tool holds tremendous value for NCIA members and business owners in the cannabis space, giving them access to market data previously unavailable or difficult to find.

MedicineManTechGrow

Legal Cannabis Industry’s Energy Bill Not So Alarming

By Aaron G. Biros
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MedicineManTechGrow

New Frontier, a financial data analysis firm, recently released a report that caused a media frenzy over the cannabis industry’s alarmingly high energy bill. The Washington Post published an article with the headline “The Surprisingly Huge Energy Footprint of the Booming Marijuana Industry.” Denver news publication, Westword, posted an article with the headline “Legal Marijuana Used Over $6 Billion in Energy Last Year, Report Says.” There are dozens of articles published suggesting the legal cannabis industry’s energy consumption has a $6 billion price tag, which is misleading.

What’s the problem? The $6 billion figure that New Frontier cites comes from a 2012 research study that estimates the energy footprint for legal and illicit markets. That means the $6 billion estimate includes the legal cannabis industry and the black market’s energy footprint. To put it in perspective, the size of the entire legal cannabis industry in the United States was less than that in 2014 at $4.6 billion, according to the ArcView Group.

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The projected energy demand for growing in the Northwest through 2035, from the New Frontier report.

According to Giadha Aguirre DeCarcer, founder and chief executive officer of New Frontier, only including the legal market would significantly reduce the size of this estimate. “Dr. Mills’ study looked to assess the total energy use associated with marijuana in the US, not just that of the nascent legal marijuana industry; including this holistic view is an important growth determinant for the legal market as the U.S. transitions from a predominantly illicit production environment,” says Decarcer.

Dr. Evan Mills, energy analyst at the Department of Energy and member of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, conducted the 2012 research study and is a senior advisor on the New Frontier report.

Brett Roper, founder and chief operating officer at Medicine Man Technologies, believes those numbers still need to be adjusted. “Dr. Mills’ study is based on pre-2011 data and sources that date back as far as 2003,” says Roper. “The study provides figures that are, quite frankly, outdated based upon changes in the industry related to cultivation and production efficiency.” The study focuses on cultivation increments of sixteen square feet consuming 13,000 KW per year that, according to Roper, is not reflective of current indoor cultivation technology and energy consumption metrics.

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A back-end view of Medicine Man Technologies’ indoor production facility

According to Roper, today’s efficiencies, scalable cultivation operations and new technology could explain the overestimate from five years ago. “We are a Tier III operator that produced approximately 5,100 (+/-) pounds of dried cured flower in 2015 and have a total power bill of approximately $420,000 for the year,” he says. Note that the company had roughly $18 million in revenue in 2015. “Using this metric we have a total energy billing of approximately $83 per pound grown.” According to Roper, they cultivate completely indoors with HPS lights that are not particularly energy-efficient, so this estimate is relatively conservative.

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Medicine Man Technologies’ approximately 40,000 sq. ft. cultivation facility.

Dr. Mills’ research cites much higher numbers for the cost of energy per pound of finished product than Roper’s findings. “From the perspective of a producer, the national-average annual energy costs are approximately $5500 per module or $2500 per kilogram [roughly 2.2 pounds] of finished product,” says Dr. Mills. That would suggest the average cost of energy for indoor growing to be above $1,000 per pound, roughly half the current average wholesale price. These numbers would mean that cannabis growers, on average, lose roughly 50% of their total revenue to their energy bill. Medicine Man Technologies’ energy usage is less than 3% of their total revenue.

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Xcel, a Colorado utility, showing the rise in electricity demand for cultivation.

The New Frontier report does provide caveats on the use of Dr. Mills’ research. “While this analysis was conducted before many of the recent advancements in cultivation technologies, it highlights the significant energy-related environmental impact of marijuana production, and makes the issue of energy efficiency not just one of competitive advantage but also one of environmental sustainability.”

New Frontier’s CEO, DeCarcer, stresses that their report is intended to serve as a starting point to a much broader exploration of energy use in cannabis. “We are already in the process of establishing a partnership through which New Frontier will ingest real time energy-use data from cultivators across different legal markets for analysis in our next report,” says DeCarcer. “Our goal is to build on the work done by Dr. Mills and others in order to ensure that we are providing the most accurate representation of where the industry currently is, and where it is headed.”

Regardless of the discrepancies, this kind of discourse is great for prompting innovation and getting people to think about the environment. It is very important to examine the energy footprint of cannabis cultivation as it raises questions regarding energy efficiency, which would help the industry’s long-term environmental sustainability.