According to The Washington Examiner, Department of Homeland Security secretary John Kelly said that marijuana is a gateway drug during a speech at George Washington University on Tuesday. “And let me be clear about marijuana. It is a potentially dangerous gateway drug that frequently leads to the use of harder drugs,” says Kelly. “[U.S. Customs & Border Protection] will continue to search for marijuana at sea, air and land ports of entry and when found take similar appropriate action.” The DEA recently dropped any mention of the gateway drug theory. Many argue it is a myth propagated by drug war stalwarts and even the National Institute on Drug Abuse won’t call it a gateway drug anymore.
During a crime committee meeting this morning, Attorney General Jeff Sessions mentioned a link between the illegal marijuana trade and cartel violence. “We have quite a bit of marijuana being imported by the cartels from Mexico- this is definitely a cartel-sponsored event,” says Sessions. According to The Washington Times, Sessions mentioned violence involving marijuana distribution in the nation’s capital, Washington D.C., where cannabis is legal. “So it remains a significant international criminal organization, the marijuana network,” says Sessions. This is not the first time the Attorney General has suggested a link between the plant and violence. Back in February, Sessions claimed that legal cannabis has led to an increase in violence.
The statements made this morning are the latest in a series of contradictory and uncertain messages on federal cannabis policy by the Trump administration. “DHS personnel will continue to investigate marijuana’s illegal pathways along the network into the U.S., its distribution within the homeland, and will arrest those involved in the drug trade according to federal law,” says secretary Kelly. That message, however, contradicts statements he made earlier in the week.
During a Sunday interview with NBC’s “Meet the Press,” secretary Kelly told Chuck Todd “marijuana is not a factor in the drug war.” In that interview, he went on to add that methamphetamine, heroin and cocaine are the real culprits they are after, noting the high death tolls associated with the drugs and connection to organized crime in Mexico. The Trump administration still has not issued a clear, consistent position on federal cannabis policy.
At the Department of Justice on Monday, Attorney General Jeff Sessions told reporters he believes cannabis use is unhealthy and leads to more violence, according to Politico. “I don’t think America is going to be a better place when people of all ages, and particularly young people, are smoking pot,” Sessions told reporters. “I believe it’s an unhealthy practice and current levels of THC in marijuana are very high compared to what they were a few years ago.” Those comments come a week after press secretary Sean Spicer suggested that the opioid crisis is tied to recreational cannabis use and seemed to hint that President Trump is okay with legal medical cannabis, but that the administration might not approve of recreational cannabis.
During a press conference last week, White House press secretary Sean Spicer told reporters “I do believe you will see greater enforcement of it,” referring to the enforcement of the Controlled Substances Act on recreational cannabis. He went on to make the distinction between medical and recreational use clear, while deferring to the Department of Justice, saying they will be looking further into the matter.
Much like press secretary Spicer incorrectly tied legal cannabis to the opioid crisis, Attorney General Sessions incorrectly tied legal cannabis to an increase in violence. “We’re seeing real violence around that,” says Sessions. “Experts are telling me there’s more violence around marijuana than one would think and there’s big money involved.” He did not discuss who those experts were or how he came to that conclusion. There are a number of studies refuting his claims, suggesting no causal link between legal cannabis and violence, with one study even suggesting a reduction in violent crimes after legalizing cannabis.
Sessions has not mentioned any specific policy actions that he would take on the enforcement of federal law. “We’re going to look at it. … And try to adopt responsible policies,” says Sessions. Jeff Sessions making these comments should come as no surprise as he expressed his disdain for cannabis a number of times and has been known to be a Drug War stalwart. President Trump promised during his campaign that he supports medical cannabis and the matter should be left up to the states. These recent comments by his newly appointed press secretary and attorney general suggest the administration may not honor that campaign promise.
Politicians in states that have legalized cannabis were quick to condemn the comments and uphold this as an issue of states’ rights. Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper told reporters legal cannabis is in their state’s constitution and he intends to uphold the will of the voters. Oregon State Rep. Knute Buehler (R-Bend) said in a press release, “I hope the new President and Attorney General keep their hands off Oregon’s marijuana law.” Regulators in Nevada have also said they plan to move forward with implementing legal recreational cannabis regulations, despite any federal actions or comments. Bob Ferguson, Washington State attorney general told the Associated Press, “We will resist any efforts to thwart the will of the voters in Washington,” and has requested a meeting with Sessions to discuss his policies. California Lt. Governor Gavin Newsom wrote a letter to President Trump telling him not to follow through on those threats of greater enforcement. “The government must not strip the legal and publicly supported industry of its business and hand it back to drug cartels and criminals,” Newsom wrote to Trump. “Dealers don’t card kids. I urge you and your administration to work in partnership with California and the other eight states that have legalized recreational marijuana for adult use in a way that will let us enforce our state laws that protect the public and our children, while targeting the bad actors.”
At this time, it remains unclear exactly how the Trump administration will address federal cannabis policy, but these vague and ominous statements from top federal officials continue to raise eyebrows in the cannabis industry. Until President Trump comes out with a clear stance on legal cannabis, those in the cannabis industry fear a federal crackdown on legal recreational cannabis is looming.
On Election Day in November, two major states in the Northeast legalized recreational cannabis: Maine and Massachusetts. It seems that a handful of other states in the region are looking to legalize recreational cannabis now that their neighbors have done so.
In New Hampshire, a bipartisan bill was introduced on January 4th to establish “a commission to study the legalization, regulation, and taxation of marijuana.” The commission formed by House Bill 215 aims to “study the experiences of states that have or are in the process of legalizing and regulating the recreational use of marijuana by adults, with particular attention to be given to the ways the changes in marijuana laws in Maine and Massachusetts, as well as Canada, impact our state,” the bill states. Notably, the bill provides for a representative from the Marijuana Policy Project to be a member of the committee.
New Hampshire Senate Minority Leader Jeff Woodburn (D) says he plans to sponsor a recreational legalization bill separate from House Bill 215. According to the New Hampshire Union Leader, Woodburn would work with lawmakers and stakeholders to set a timeline and regulatory framework.
In Connecticut, a number of lawmakers have sponsored bills this session that would legalize recreational cannabis. Senate President Martin Looney (D) filed a bill that would legalize, regulate and tax cannabis, with the tax revenue going to the state’s general fund, according to the New Haven Register. State Rep. Melissa Ziobron (R) introduced a piece of legislation that would legalize adult use over the age of 21. Lawmakers are optimistic that with Massachusetts legalizing it, perhaps the outcome will be different than previous failed attempts to push cannabis legalization.
Lawmakers in Rhode Island told reporters they want to be the first state to legalize recreational cannabis via the state legislature, rather than a ballot initiative, the most common path to legalization for other states. Sen. Joshua Miller and Rep. Scott Slater of Rhode Island, both Democrats, plan to introduce a legalization bill, the seventh year in a row that such a bill has been introduced in the state. They are also hopeful that after Massachusetts’ legalized it in November, they will have more success this time around. “Our constituents think it is time for lawmakers to pass this legislation, and we should listen to them,” says Miller. “If we fail to pass the bill this year, we will lose significant ground to Massachusetts.” Their bill would tack on a 23% tax on cannabis sales.
In each state’s case, lawmakers are keeping a close eye on Massachusetts and Maine’s regulations and tracking their progress. While the bills in the state legislatures are nascent in their journey to becoming law, the important takeaway is that geographic proximity to states with legalized cannabis is a catalyst for reform in New England.
Update: The No on Question 1 Campaign has rescinded their recount effort, according to the Portland Press Herald. “We promised folks that if we came to a point where we could not see any chance of reversing the result, we would not drag the process out,” says Newell Augur, legal counsel for No on 1 campaign. “We are satisfied that the count and the result are accurate.”
On Election Day in Maine, voters were heavily divided on Question 1, a ballot initiative that would legalize recreational cannabis. Voters passed the initiative, but with a very narrow margin, according to a WGME article.
Out of almost 760,000 ballots, Question 1 passed by a margin of only 4,073 votes, roughly 50.2% in favor and 49.8% against. Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap says State Police is responsible for collecting the physical ballots and bringing them to Augusta. Dunlap’s office is coordinating with volunteers to recount each vote by hand.
Dunlap is quoted saying there would have to be significant vote changes in every town to indicate any discrepancies in the polling. He says the state can recount up to 25,000 votes a day, but with the upcoming holidays, the recount will continue into 2017.
According to International Business Times, Gov. Paul LePage, who is a cannabis legalization opponent, has said he would delay the process of legalization even if the measure passed. He also said he would speak with president-elect Donald Trump regarding the enforcement of federal cannabis prohibition. Governor Lepage said if the Trump administration embraces states with legal cannabis then he too would honor the voters’ wish to legalize recreational cannabis.
President-elect Donald Trump nominated Sen. Jeff Sessions from Alabama for Attorney General and Rep. Tom Price from Georgia as the new Health Secretary. Those appointments still require Senate approval before they are officially members of the cabinet. Neither of the picks to head the Department of Justice (DoJ) and the Department of Health & Human Services (HHS) is friendly to cannabis.
What’s the bad news?
Both of those agencies are at the center of any federal regulation of cannabis, including access for research. As Attorney General, Jeff Sessions would essentially have the ability to block any rescheduling efforts, as outlined in the Controlled Substances Act.
Sessions has made inflammatory, racist remarks and showed his disdain for cannabis users on multiple occasions. He disgracefully said at a Senate hearing in April, “Good people don’t smoke marijuana.” When he was a federal prosecutor, Sessions was a prominent advocate for the War on Drugs, and perhaps even still is.
Tom Price, a Republican Congressman from Georgia, has voted repeatedly against pro-cannabis legalization bills, including twice against the Veterans Equal Access Amendment as well as the Rohrabacher/Farr Amendment, which “prohibits the use of funds in the bill to supersede State law in those States that have legalized the use of medical marijuana.” NORML’s Georgia Scorecard gave Tom Price a D grade for his previously voting against pro-cannabis bills.
What’s the good news?
While Sen. Jeff Sessions is certainly no friend to legal cannabis, I believe he is not a serious danger to the cannabis industry. This op-ed on CNN does a terrific job at summing up Sessions’ potential threat to the cannabis industry, but also why it may not be cause for a total panic. The author mentions a laundry list of DoJ priorities over cannabis, but I think the larger issue at hand is states’ rights.
Republicans are historically passionate when it comes to keeping states’ rights sovereign. With cannabis’ big wins on Election Day, a majority of the country’s population now lives in states where cannabis is legal.
There is too much momentum behind legal cannabis for a new administration to waste precious resources and time on trying to disrupt it. States are getting too much tax revenue from regulating cannabis to just let the DoJ interfere with their economies. “Voters in 28 states have chosen programs that shift cannabis from the criminal market to highly regulated, tax-paying businesses,” says Aaron Smith, executive director of the National Cannabis Industry Association (NCIA). “Senator Sessions has long advocated for state sovereignty, and we look forward to working with him to ensure that states’ rights and voter choices on cannabis are respected.” Smith’s words in the NCIA statement are pointed and clear: this is a states’ rights issue at heart and they must respect that.
By forcing the states’ rights issue to the front, it is possible to put legal cannabis in a bipartisan lens, thus eliminating the possibility of a few old drug war stalwarts disrupting the industry. While rescheduling efforts could be thwarted for the coming years, I have faith that the federal government will not interfere with states that legalize cannabis.
Legal marijuana sales are expected to hit $6.7 billion in 2016, with the market expected to climb to $21.8 billion in sales by 2020. As legal cannabis sales rise, cannabis labels are quickly becoming one of the fastest growing markets for label manufacturers.
An Industry Gaining Legitimacy
Since California first legalized medical cannabis in 1996, the cannabis industry has grown considerably. Voters in four states legalized recreational cannabis last week on Election Day, including California, which is currently the world’s 6th largest economy. Voters in another four states legalized medical cannabis as well, bringing the total to 28 states with some form of legalization measure.
Legal cannabis has primarily consisted of dispensaries selling cannabis flower or leaves (ready-to-smoke marijuana) in pouches or childproof containers. Regulations have essentially required two cannabis labels for the pouches: a branded label on the front and a regulatory label on the back. Many dispensaries also use pre-printed pouches.
Similar to the way alcohol labels must contain information for alcohol content, the informational labels that sit on the backs of pouches are legally required to provide certain accurate information, including:
Net weight in grams
Lab name and test number confirmation
And cannabis flower labels are just the beginning. Many smoke-free product categories are emerging with similar labeling requirements. These often allow for increased branding opportunities that will afford better profit margins for label suppliers. Some of the many products in this young category include:
Edibles — such as dark chocolates, baked goods, snack crackers and teas infused with cannabis.
Topicals — such as pain-relieving lotions and creams.
Tinctures — cannabis-infused oils that are applied in drops to the tongue.
Bottom line: For label and packaging suppliers, cannabis represents one of the fastest growing market opportunities today and the opportunities extend way beyond labeling for the flower itself.
As more and more states move toward legalization and regulation, uneven laws in different states are increasingly governing the market. Businesses must respond to ever-changing requirements, including labeling standards. While many dispensaries have gotten away with minimalist labels, states are increasingly demanding dispensaries meet more stringent legal requirements. For example, Oregon passed new labeling requirements this year and products that failed to meet them by October 1, 2016 were not allowed on store shelves.
Label suppliers entering the market must keep abreast of the changing regulations and be able to help brands navigate them. They need to work to understand the intricacies of this new market, rather than simply looking to redirect the capabilities they already possess. See the original post here.
Update: With 100% reporting (589 of 589 precincts), voters in Maine passed Question 1, legalizing recreational cannabis by a very narrow margin of 50.2% to 49.8% (378,288 in favor and 375,668 against is a margin of only 2,620 votes)
Voters in California, Massachusetts, Maine and Nevada passed ballot initiatives legalizing the recreational use of cannabis, creating huge new markets for the cannabis industry overnight. Voters in North Dakota, Florida, Montana and Arkansas passed ballot initiatives to legalize forms of medical cannabis. Voters by a margin of 52.2% to 47.8% rejected Arizona’s Proposition 205, which would have legalized recreational cannabis.
With 100% of the votes in for Maine’s Question 1, voters narrowly passed legalizing recreational cannabis, the polls show it won by a very slim margin, less than 3,000 votes.
New Frontier Data and Arcview Market Research released an Election Day update to their growth projections for the cannabis industry by 2020. The release projects: “The legalization of cannabis in California, Massachusetts, Nevada, Florida, Arkansas and North Dakota will result in new markets that account for $7.1 billion in sales by 2020. We project the overall U.S. cannabis market will exceed $20.9 billion by 2020.” Those numbers include overall cannabis sales and assume the markets are all fully operational by 2018.
According to Giadha DeCarcer, founder and chief executive officer of New Frontier, there is overwhelming support for medical cannabis and a majority of Americans are in favor of legalizing recreational cannabis as well. “The ten initiatives on the ballot reflect the accelerating public debate on legal cannabis access,” says DeCarcer. “The passage of California’s adult use measure and Florida’s medical initiative expand legal access into two of the country’s most populous states.” The market potential is notably enormous in California, it currently being the 6th largest economy in the world. “Additionally, the passage of the measure in Massachusetts opens the first adult use market in the Northeast extending the reach of legal adult use access from coast to coast,” says DeCarcer. “The passage of the measures in Arkansas and North Dakota shows that public support on this issue is not solely confined to urban, liberal markets but extends into conservative rural states as well.”
According to the release, by 2020 California could reach a total market size of $7.6B and Massachusetts could grow to $1.1B. Massachusetts being the first mover in the Northeast to legalize recreational cannabis will be watched very closely by a number of surrounding states that appeared bullish on cannabis legalization previously.
Leslie Bocskor, president and founder of Electrum Partners, believes the Election Day results will bring an influx of investing opportunities to the industry. “We are going to see a diverse approach from the irrationally exuberant to the sophisticated and experienced investor and entrepreneur getting involved, creating businesses and investing in the industry that will create innovation, jobs, wealth and tax revenue far beyond the consensus expectations,” says Bocksor. “The cannabis industry is more than one industry; it is an entire ecosystem, impacting so many verticals, such as agriculture, industrial chemicals from hemp, pharmaceuticals, nutraceuticals and more. We see the funding of innovation that might have been absent without the velocity and heft that has come from this phenomenon,” adds Bocksor. As these newly legalized markets begin to launch, it will require a considerable amount of time to see the industry flesh out in each new state.
Donald Trump winning the presidential election and the GOP retaining control over the House and Senate could mean a lot of uncertainties for the future of the cannabis industry on a national scale. President-elect Trump has previously flip-flopped on the issue of cannabis legalization, but has said in the past he favors leaving the issue of medical use up to the states, advocating for access to medical cannabis, while recently saying he opposes regulating cannabis for adult use, according to the Marijuana Policy Project. The MPP gave him a C+ grade for his views toward cannabis.
On The O’Reilly Factor in February 2016, Trump told the conservative political commentator that he supports medical cannabis while opposing the recreational use. “I’m in favor of it [access to medical cannabis] a hundred percent. But what you are talking about [recreational use], perhaps not. It’s causing a lot of problems out there [in Colorado],” says Trump. It is still unclear at this time exactly what Trump’s policy will be for the now 28 states that have some form of legal cannabis.
Aaron Smith, executive director of the National Cannabis Industry Association (NCIA), appeared optimistic regarding the outcomes of Election Day. “More than 16 million voters, including in two of the three most populated states in the nation, chose legal, regulated cannabis programs that promote safety, boost the economy, help sick patients and address social injustices,” says Smith. In the press release, the NCIA spelled out their priorities for congressional action on cannabis policy: Opening up bank access for state-compliant cannabis businesses, ending the effects of federal tax code Section 280E on cannabis businesses and removing cannabis from the Controlled Substances Act via descheduling. “Last night’s results send a simple message – the tipping point has come,” says Smith.
In less than two weeks on November 8th, voters in five states will head to the polls to decide if they want to legalize recreational cannabis. California, Nevada, Arizona, Massachusetts and Maine all have initiatives on the ballot that could legalize recreational cannabis for adult use. Polls in each state show a majority of voters support the initiatives.
This New York Times article suggests that November 8th could be a major turning point in the movement to legalize cannabis in the United States. Even if the initiatives fail in most of those states, California’s initiative, which is expected to pass, could be the linchpin for federal legalization. California’s giant economy, coupled with its ability to drive national policy on social issues, sets the stage for rapid industry growth.
According to Matt Karnes, founder of GreenWave Advisors, the significance of California’s measure also lies in the merging of medical and recreational regulatory schemes. His firm sees a trend where “initially bifurcated marijuana markets will merge under a shared regulatory system into substantially larger enterprises.” Karnes believes the California market will conservatively reach $2.6B in 2016 and grow to $6.7B by 2021, which represents a 5-year compound annual growth rate of roughly 21%. “Should California vote to legalize recreational use this November, we expect implementation of a combined regulated market as soon as 2018,” says Karnes. “A combined California market is significant, not only because of its sheer size (~55% of the U.S. market), but it would also mark the first state to implement regulations for a fully legal market without initial oversight of medical use purchases.”
The presidential election is equally as important for the future of the legal cannabis industry. According to Hillary Clinton’s campaign, if she is elected into office then she will “reschedule marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule II substance.” This would have a dramatic impact on the growth of the industry, most notably by easing banking and financing restrictions. Whether she will actually follow through with her plans, if elected, to reschedule cannabis is yet to be known. Regardless, this is the first time in history that a candidate with a majority of the country’s support is introducing this concept. That represents a serious shift in mainstream attitude toward cannabis. That represents the normalization of cannabis.
Jane West, chief executive officer of the lifestyle brand Jane West and co-founder of Women Grow, believes this represents the country finally taking cannabis legalization seriously. “Given the poll results that have been publicly available, it seems likely that three or more of the initiatives will pass,” says West. “By November, about 20% of Americans will be living in states where it is legal to consume cannabis. This will accelerate the process of bringing marijuana out of the shadows, and more adults will be comfortable using this enjoyable, relatively benign substance socially and openly.” Normalizing cannabis can look like a lot of things, but mainly it takes away the counterculture stigma and puts it in a light where its regular use is not frowned upon, which could be instrumental in gaining public support.
Leah Heise, chief executive officer of Women Grow, agrees with West’s prediction that at least three of those states will vote to legalize recreational cannabis, citing Maine, Massachusetts and California as favorites. “Additionally, with the likelihood that more than half the states in the United States support some type of cannabis program within their boundaries, a clear message is being sent to the federal government regarding legalization on a federal level,” says Heise. “I don’t think the federal government will be able to continue to enact its cannabis policy through executive orders and funding bills. Real legislative attention will have to be given to the issue.” That legislative attention could come in the form of the CARERS Act, which would reschedule cannabis.
If you are in favor of legalizing cannabis and want to see some change within your lifetime, what can you do to help? Vote. There has never been a more important election year for legal cannabis.
Last week, Steep Hill Labs, Inc. announced plans to expand on the East Coast, including licensing for laboratories in Washington, D.C. and Pennsylvania. The cannabis testing company now is operating or developing in seven states, the District of Columbia along with an official arrangement with a research university in Jamaica, according to Cathie Bennett Warner, director of public relations at Steep Hill.
The same team of physicians that oversees the Steep Hill laboratory in Maryland will operate the Pennsylvania and D.C. labs. Heading that team is chief executive officer Dr. Andrew Rosenstein, chief of the division of Gastroenterology at University of Maryland Saint Joseph Medical Center and assistant clinical professor of Gastroenterology and Hepatology at the University of Maryland Medical Center. Dr. Rosenstein has been recognized by Baltimore Magazine as a top doctor in the Baltimore area, according to a press release.
According to Dr. Rosenstein, they want to provide accurate clinical results for trials with patients using cannabis. “All clinical trials will require a competent, credible and reliable lab partner and that is what we are bringing to the field- and that is why we are working with Steep Hill,” says Dr. Rosenstein. With team members having backgrounds in pathology, molecular diagnostics, clinical chemistry, microbiology and genetics, it should come as no surprise that they plan to participate in clinical research.
Dr. Rosenstein’s vested interest in cannabis safety stems from prior experience with his patients using cannabis. “Over the past five years, we have seen an increased number of patients using cannabis, particularly for managing the side effects of Crohn’s disease and cancer treatment,” says Dr. Rosenstein. “They would bring it up to us and at the time I didn’t know much about it, but anecdotally it’s really clear that a lot of patients have great responses to it.” Not knowing much about the preparation or safety of cannabis at the time led Dr. Rosenstein to advise patients to be very careful if they are immunocompromised.
“When a patient is immunocompromised, a bacterial or fungal infection can be lethal, so because we had patients using cannabis, we wanted to make sure it was safe,” says Dr. Rosenstein. So when Maryland legalized medical cannabis, Dr. Rosenstein and his team saw the need to protect patient safety and Steep Hill was a perfect fit. “We really didn’t want to reinvent the wheel so we looked for someone to partner with,” says Dr. Rosenstein. “Steep Hill has the best technology and the best credibility and we didn’t want to compromise on quality and safety issues. They felt the same way so we partnered with them and culturally it has been a great fit.”
The new laboratories plan to offer a similar range of services that are offered at other Steep Hill labs, such as rapid potency testing for THC-A, ∆-9-THC, CBD, CBD-A and moisture. But Dr. Rosenstein sees clinical opportunities in the East Coast medical hubs. “We want to provide the testing component for studies, providing clinical reproducibility and consistency, and those are the things as a top-notch lab that we are interested in doing.”
With a physician-led group that has experience in molecular diagnostics, partnering with Steep Hill is about being medically focused, according to Dr. Rosenstein. “First and foremost, this is about patient safety.” Because of that, he emphasizes the need for required microbiological contaminant testing, particularly because of his experience with patients. “If you’re a cancer patient and you get a toxic dose of salmonella or E. coli, that can kill you, so testing for microbiologic contamination is of the highest priority.”
According to Warner, bridging the medical cannabis science gap with Steep Hill’s professionalism and experienced doctors practicing medicine is a big deal. “We are working very closely with their medical team to make sure these standards are medically superior,” says Warner. “To have these doctors with such a high level of knowledge in medicine working with us in cannabis analytics is a breakthrough.”
California’s tradition of social and political experimentation has made it the national leader in areas ranging from environmentalism and social justice to technology. Now it is poised to make the same far-reaching transformations in the cannabis industry.
As one of the world’s top ten economies and the nation’s most populated state (having a population of 38 million), California could propel the decriminalized recreational cannabis industry to $6.5 billion in 2020, according to a report by ArcView Group and New Frontier.
At the same time, California is in the process of moving from state to local zoning control, as far as issuing the OK to become licensed, effective Jan. 18, 2018. This means collectives and dispensaries have to obtain local approval before they receive a state license. It also puts greater pressure on gray market operations to become licensed.
On the regulatory front, the state is also heading toward a historic vote in November 2016 in the form of Proposition 64. This will open up the customer base to all Californians. It has a similar licensing path as the medical regulations the Governor signed last year, except it allows vertical integration between growers and dispensaries, which is not allowed under the medical regulations, except in very limited circumstances.
“My bet is the demand will outweigh the supply for a while and the legal cannabis businesses that are licensed by the locals and have their supply chain in place will end up profiting,” says Andrew Hay of Frontera Accounting, a cannabis-focused CPA firm based in California under the umbrella of the Frontera business group.
A Huge Market Awaits
If the Adult Use of Marijuana Act passes and is enacted by 2018, the state’s legal cannabis sales are projected to hit $1.6 billion in their first year, the ArcView and New Frontier market report said. Even without the new expanded legislation and working amid a fractured medical cannabis regulatory environment, California now accounts for about half of all the legal cannabis sales nationwide, according to the report.
At the same time, the state is well positioned to capitalize on new technology and financing from Silicon Valley in terms of human talent, money and the applications of new technology in both the medical and recreational sectors. One driving force will come from the Adult Use of Marijuana Act, which mandates that 10 percent of sales tax collected on cannabis sales be re-directed towards medical research and drug abuse programs.
In addition, according to Marijuana Politics, the expected tax windfall is slated to be divided up among a variety of programs: $10 million to public universities, $10 million to business and economic development, $3 million to California Highway Patrol and $2 million for medical cannabis research at UC San Diego. The remainder will be divided between youth drug education and prevention (60%), environmental protection (20%) and law enforcement (20%).
This flow of new funds is expected to propel research into biomedical and applied research, as well as nutraceuticals, or products derived from food sources with extra health benefits in addition to the basic nutritional value found in foods. The driving new ingredients in these products will be derived from cannabis.
Consolidating the Recreational and Medical Markets
Californians will vote in November 2016 to legalize the sale of recreational cannabis. This vote will have serious repercussions since it could mean that the delineation between medical and recreational markets will disappear.
“Should California vote to legalize recreational use this November, we expect implementation of a combined regulated market as soon as 2018,” says Matt Karnes, founder of GreenWave Advisors. Karnes says a merged California market is significant, not only because of its sheer size (it represents about 55% of the U.S. market), but also because it “would mark the first state to implement regulations for a fully legal market without initial oversight of medical use purchases. This could serve as a catalyst for similar action in Nevada, Arizona, Massachusetts and Maine which will also vote to fully legalize cannabis this November.”
In the report, “Mid Year Update: The Metamorphosis of the U.S. Marijuana Market Begins,” the firm said it projects cannabis sales in the U.S. to hit $6.5 billion for 2016. The firm forecasts that by 2021, revenues should reach about $30 billion. This assumes that marijuana will be legal in all 50 states to various degrees. The firm also notes that this year’s election choices can potentially generate $4.2 billion in incremental retail revenues by 2018 and $5.8 billion by 2021.
The Impact on Branding, Music and Culture
As the nation’s culture manufacturing center for films, TV and music, the cannabis business is also expected to shape artistic direction for years to come. Jeff Welsh is a partner at Frontera, a business group that holds a suite of services including the Frontera Law Group, Frontera Advisors, Frontera Accounting and Frontera Entertainment, which is headquartered in Sherman Oaks with a specific focus on the cannabis industry. Welsh says he sees more partnerships between the cannabis industry and mainstream entertainment outlets. Welsh recently signed Chris Sayegh, the herbal chef who uses liquid THC to create elegant restaurant-quality food, in a deal with the United Talent Agency. This marks a cultural breakthrough that links the cannabis and culinary industries.
Because Los Angeles is the largest market, this cultural nexus is expected to contribute more new alliances between celebrity branding and cannabis products.
Luke Stanton, founder and managing partner of Frontera, also said less stringent regulations in the cannabis legal environment could find their way into the regulations and laws of other states that often adopt California laws as templates for their own state. “We have seen this happen in other areas, such as environmental and criminal justice, so it would not be surprising to see our state regulations and policies being enacted in states nationwide, and even in some countries outside of the U.S.,” Stanton says.
California has also been the site of innovative marketing efforts between cannabis patients and growers. The Emerald Exchange held in Malibu, was the first event in cannabis that allowed a direct conversation between Northern California cultivators and the Southern California patient community. According to Michael Katz of Evoxe Laboratories, a California cannabis product manufacturer, “Often the farmers don’t have a chance to really engage with patients, and we wanted everyone to be able to come together, discuss practices, provide information and ultimately support the entire ecosystem of the cannabis community.”
Caveats for Investors
While the California market looks very attractive, it may be the siren’s call for investors until issues related to finding solid companies and taxation are settled.
Since more operations will have to become fully compliant with state regulations, these businesses will face more significant expenses to meet security, taxes, licensing fees, accounting and reporting operations requirements. This could drive smaller operations out of business or force them to become more efficient.
In addition, California’s huge potential and changing regulatory environment is attracting large growers into the state that will compete with smaller, established operations. According to Jonathan Rubin, chief executive officer of Cannabis Benchmarks, these regulations affecting commercial growing vary greatly by municipality. For instance, Mendocino and Humboldt counties have enacted measures to protect local growers, while other counties have not, Rubin says.
In addition, cannabis wholesale prices have been falling due to changes in cultivation methods and variations in supply.
Andrew Hay, a CPA at Frontera Accounting, believes investors should make sure there is a solid plan behind any cannabis company investment. “I’ve seen significant money thrown behind ‘cannabis brands’ with no substance,” Hay says.
“In these cases, the winners are the growers, manufacturers, distributors and dispensaries that are licensed (or are in the process of getting licensed), who pay their taxes and have a successful track record. I wouldn’t invest until you see the underlying operational structure, their tax/regulatory compliance and financials that prove there have been sales,” he says.
Another major problem for investors lies in the IRS accounting regulations. “The biggest hurdle I see facing the California cannabis business is the IRS / IRC 280E, which only allows cost of goods sold deductions. Every cannabis business should be planning their operations around IRC 280E, as there is no way to legitimately survive in the cannabis industry without doing so,” according to Hay.
“IRC 280E is here to stay regardless of California legalization. It is up to the Federal government to fix this issue, which I don’t see happening any time soon. Every cannabis business should hire a CPA and business attorney that work well together to devise a cost accounting strategy to minimize IRC 280E and its impact. Without this, an investor’s profits can go up in smoke to the IRS,” Hay says.