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european union states

Q1 European Cannabis Industry Update Report

By Marguerite Arnold, Marguerite Arnold
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european union states

While the American cannabis industry deals with both unparalleled opportunity and new risks, Europe is setting itself up for a spring that is going to be verdant.

The ongoing drumbeat for reform in countries across the continent is bringing both money and high-grade medical product into the market. Even if volume is still really at a trickle, it will rapidly widen to a steady stream. It is also very clear that the next two to three quarters are going to deliver news that the cannabiz has arrived, and with authority.

The following is an overview of what is happening, where, and with an eye to informing foreign investors, in particular, about new opportunities in an awakening market.

Germany

Without a doubt, the country is priming itself for a medical market that is going to be large and partially government supported, driving regulation of medical use across the continent. On top of that, the idea of selling 28 grams (1 oz) of product to end consumers who only pay about $12 for their medication has gotten the attention of global producers. Opportunities here for those who did not submit a bid for federal cultivation (see the big Canadian LPs) are still unfolding.

german flag
Photo: Ian McWilliams, Flickr

However here is what is now on the table: an import market that cannot get enough cheap, GMP certified product. Producers from Australia to Uruguay are now actively hunting for a way in, even if cutting a supply deal for the next 18 – 24 months as the German green machine starts to kick into production-ready status. What a bad time for Israel to be so publicly out of the ex-im biz! In fact, Israeli entrepreneurs are scouring the country for opportunities into the market another way (and there are a few efforts afoot in a sleeping giant of a market waking up from a long snooze to find they cannot get enough product). Right now, however, the legal market is absolutely dominated by Canopy, Aurora, Aphria and Tilray along with Dutch Bedrocan.

The German parliament is clearly also going to do something about another piece of reform which will also drive market expansion – starting with announcement of additional cultivation possibilities (potentially this time even open to German firms). On Friday, the day after the British parliament wrangled over the same thing, the German Bundestag debated decriminalization along with a few other hot button topics (like abortion). With only the AfD (right wing) still in the “lock ‘em up camp,” and even the head of the police calling for reform, it is clear that decriminalization is on the legislative agenda this year.

Spain, Italy, Switzerland, Portugal, Denmark & Holland

While it may seem presumptuous to lump all these very different countries under one label, the reality is that the level of reform is generally in a similar state (transition to medical), and that drives potential political and market risk as well as evaluation of investment decisions.

aurora logoIn Spain, federal reform has not come yet, but medical deals involving pharmaceutical companies (both exclusively cannabinoid focussed and otherwise) are afoot. Plus of course there is Barcelona (the Colorado of the country in many ways).

Italy, Portugal and Denmark are all the battlegrounds for the big Canadian (and German) companies now set on having a country-by-country footprint in opening markets across the EU (see Canopy, Aurora, Aphria and their German counterparts of Spektrum Cannabis, Pedianos and Nuuvera). Licensing is political, happening at a high level, and only for those with the bank to back deals that come with high capex attached. That said, there are lucrative opportunities for those with local contacts and liquidity.Nuuvera logo

Holland is another animal altogether, but for the most part everyone is so confused about the state of reform domestically that the only people really in position to take advantage of it are the Dutch, at least for now. That said, Dutch-based plays (in part financed by Canadian backing) for other Euro markets are absolutely underway. Who else has so much experience here, let’s be honest? Regardless, investments in these canna markets, particularly for the Euro-focussed but North American investor, for now, will tend to be through public stock acquisitions of Canadian parents or direct investments in Dutch companies (see Bedrocan, but they are not the only game in town).

Switzerland, for the most part, is setting its own pace, but reform here means the CBD market, including for medical grade imports, is a place for the savvy medical investor to look for cultivation and ex-im opportunities. Including in the home-grown, Swiss pharma space.

Greece

Parthenon, Athens, Greece
Photo: Kristoffer Trolle

The recent pronouncement of government officials that Greece was opening its doors to investment and a medical cannabis business means that there will be a federally legal, EU country that is promoting both investment and tourism opportunities just for domestic consumption, let alone export. Scouts from all the major canna companies are combing both the Greek mainland and its islands.

Poland

If there was ever such a thing as a “virgin” cannabis market, Poland might well qualify. For those distributors with cheap product that has not (yet) found a home, the country is poised to start to announce (at least) distribution deals to pharmacies with producers now establishing themselves in other markets. Medical legislation has just changed, in other words, but nothing else is in place. And with Polish patients now having, literally, to scour the continent for product not to mention foot the bill for the travel costs to get it, the next obvious step is a national pharmacy chain distribution deal or two with producers from all over the world now looking for Euro market entry possibilities. Domestic production is some time off.

The BalticsThe ongoing drumbeat for reform in countries across the continent is bringing both money and high-grade medical product into the market

If there were such a thing as the “Berlin” of the cannabis market in Europe (namely sexy but poor), it is probably going to be here. Cheap production markets and opening opportunities for export across the EU for high quality, low cost cannabis are not going unnoticed. Look for interesting plays and opportunities across the region. Scouts from the big international canna companies already are.

The UK

Britain comes last because of the political uncertainty in general, surrounding the island. However, last week Parliament appeared on the verge of being embarrassed into acting on at least medical reform. There will be a market here and of course, there is already one globally known cannabis company with a 19-year track record and a monopoly license on canna-medical research and production (GW Pharmaceuticals) that calls the British Isles home. This will be a no-brainer, particularly for foreign English-speaking investors still leery of continental Europe. However it will also be highly politically connected. Expect to see a few quick arranged marriages between such landed gentry and foreign capital – potentially even this year.

French flags blowing in the wind in Le Havre

France Considers Fining Cannabis Possession

By Marguerite Arnold, Marguerite Arnold
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French flags blowing in the wind in Le Havre

The French have always been known for possessing a certain national savoire faire. In English, that translates to a phrase meaning innate understanding of how to do things with a certain amount of panache, if not bonhomie. International diplomacy was long conducted in French as a result.

However, when it comes to the famed French silver tongue or sophistication on the cannabis issue, and well, not so much. As is widely acknowledged, even by the French, the country is stuck in the Dark Ages when it comes to cannabis. Almost literally. Including having the strictest and harshest penalties for possession anywhere in Europe. Such penalties do not include a stint in the Bastille. But they can involve prison time, and they are ridiculously harsh. Quelle Horreure! Not mention, Vive la Revolution!

Nobody has said (yet) “Let them eat spice cake.” But France is now clearly an outlier in a continent moving towards cannabis reform of (at least) the medical and decriminalized kind.The most recent statistics suggest that 17 million French people have tried cannabis.

And herein lies the French paradox. Despite the highest per capita usage of any European country, French cannabis consumers have not turned into effective advocates on the political front.

Why not?

How High Are The French?

The most recent statistics suggest that 17 million French people have tried cannabis. 1.4 million use it regularly, about half of those on a daily basis. And here is the exciting (read: terrifying part). Users (not dealers) face up to a year in prison on the first offense, plus a fine of 3,750 euros (about $4,000).

Mon Dieu! Who on earth do the French think they are? A southern American state? One that probably actually banned “French” fries during a dull day at the state ‘lege when politically inspired to do so a few years back?

But even that epithet doesn’t cut it anymore in an environment where Florida is getting in on the action, and the first medical dispensary just opened in Texas.

French flags blowing in the wind in Le Havre
Image: Richard Akerman, Flickr

It is also not like the French big wigs also do not know they are out of step. France’s boyish president, now in office for about a year, Emmanuel Macron, promised decriminalization by the end of 2017 (it didn’t happen). Now a new parliamentary report, released, fittingly on Valentine’s Day, recommends swapping out the current draconian punishments for a fixed fine of between 150-200 euros ($250) per offense. The report also specifically concludes that current legislation is not working.

In 2015, there were 64,000 drug related convictions in France. 40,000 were for use, not dealing. While just over 3,000 of those convicted actually served a prison sentence, even the more conservative aspects of French society have had enough.

Like Germany recently, where the head of the country’s largest police union came out last week for decriminalization, the French police do not want to continue a charade that results in more paperwork for them, rather than a real shift in policy with concrete results. And now, neither do its politicians.

don’t expect this current diplomatic impass to hold for long, even if it gains enough traction to get passed into federal law.In an environment where political gridlock is the name of the game, however, it is very clear that cannabis is just one more issue dropped into a toxic mix that also includes topics like “what’s up in the EU.” Not to mention the nascent separatist and populist sentiments of neighbours like Spain and Germany. Countries, ironically, also far ahead of France on the cannabis front.

The hope of French activists on the ground is that cannabis is actually caught on the right side of history now. Even if, finally, it is changing the law to decriminalize the drug and only penalize patients (and others) with a ticket.

That too, is unlikely to succeed, as many such experiments elsewhere have failed before. That said, it is clearly a step in the right direction and an inevitable one at that.

Caught in the Middle

The great irony of this of course, is what is happening as France becomes an unwilling partner in the cross-border cannabis ménage-a-trois now afoot thanks to changing medical cannabis laws elsewhere in the EU. Namely, cannabis may remain off the reform agenda to parliamentarians and out of reach to the average French patient. That said, cross-continental transport of the drug will inevitably create a situation where a significant amount of cannabis products consumed by medical users elsewhere in the EU is trucked and or trained across France while out of reach to the locals.

Portugal and Spain are shaping up to be low-cost producers to the West. On the East, Germany, Switzerland and increasing numbers of Eastern European countries are looking for cheap product. That means there is going to be a great deal of medical grade cannabis crossing the continent by way of French territory. There is already a trickle. It is about to become a flood. What happens to reform in a country clearly caught in the middle?

As a result, don’t expect this current diplomatic impass to hold for long, even if it gains enough traction to get passed into federal law.

French cannabis policy is far from a la mode. Even to its own citizens. And on this issue, for sure, absolutely old fashioned in the most un-French way possible.